Exit Path Probability

Exit Radar

Get the probability of IPO vs. M&A vs. remaining private, with a realistic timing window for each, benchmarked against how your industry actually exits.

What sector are you in, and what does the company do?

Revenue stage

03 & 04

LTM and NTM (projected) revenue growth

LTM growth (%)

NTM growth (%)

05 & 06

LTM and NTM (projected) gross margin

LTM margin (%)

NTM margin (%)

Profitability trajectory

If a buyer researched your top 5 competitors, where would you rank?

What makes you hard to copy? Check anything genuinely true today.

Not aspirational. Only what’s real right now.

Proprietary tech or IP a competitor can’t easily replicate Product gets more valuable as more customers use it Real switching cost or pain for customers to leave Recognizable brand customers actively seek out License, certification, or regulatory approval that’s hard to get Honestly, none of these yet — we compete on execution/speed

Reporting & governance maturity

Founder dependency

Cap table shape

What % of trailing-12-month revenue comes from your single largest customer?

Are you actively soliciting acquisition offers, or have you received any, formal or informal?

Do you see an IPO as a viable path for this company?

Is something specific pushing you to think about an exit now, rather than in 2-3 years?

Enterprise value and date of your last 409A valuation

EV at last 409A ($M)

Date of last 409A

Current cash runway, in months

Are you currently raising, or planning to raise, another round?

Clinical or regulatory development stage

Biotech, pharma, or medical device companies only. Leave as N/A otherwise. This matters a lot for IPO timing: unlike most sectors, biotechs routinely IPO pre-revenue based on trial data, not revenue scale.

This gives a directional, benchmarked read to help you plan and ask sharper questions. It isn’t a formal exit, banking, or valuation opinion and shouldn’t replace one for anything you’re negotiating. The dissolution estimate reflects runway and fundraising signals as given, a planning input rather than a prediction about you or your team.